# TIC Risk Open Model

> The TIC Risk Open Model is an open AI model with 232 million parameters that determines the risk of Swedish limited companies, trained and tested on the public records of 1.5 million of them. Finds 3 out of 4 bankruptcies a year ahead of time.

The model reads what Swedish authorities have recorded about a company (Bolagsverket, Skatteverket, Kronofogden, Statistics Sweden, Folkhälsomyndigheten) and estimates the chance that something goes wrong in the coming year. It is not trained on any personal data: it only contains companies and their data. The figures on this site are not a credit decision about any company.

## Questions the model answers

- Bankruptcy within a year: The company goes bankrupt within the next 12 months.
- Bankruptcy within two years: The company goes bankrupt within the next 24 months.
- New unpaid debt: Within a year, the Swedish Enforcement Authority (Kronofogden) is asked to collect a new unpaid debt from the company, or an old one grows.
- F-tax approval revoked: Within a year, the Swedish Tax Agency revokes the company’s F-tax approval, which it needs to invoice as a business, because it broke the rules, for example by not filing or not paying tax.
- Annual report late: Within a year, the Swedish Companies Registration Office (Bolagsverket) charges the company a fee for filing its annual report late.

## Sample companies

- [Company A](https://risk.tic.io/companies/a/): Wholesale trade, a 7.4 % chance of bankruptcy within a year, risk class 1 of 5 (very high risk)
- [Company B](https://risk.tic.io/companies/b/): Grocery retail with a broad range, a 24.2 % chance of bankruptcy within a year, risk class 1 of 5 (very high risk)
- [Company C](https://risk.tic.io/companies/c/): Retail trade, a 3.9 % chance of bankruptcy within a year, risk class 2 of 5 (high risk)
- [Company D](https://risk.tic.io/companies/d/): Manufacture of wood and products of wood and cork, except furniture, a 0.53 % chance of bankruptcy within a year, risk class 4 of 5 (low risk)

## Model and paper

- [The model on Hugging Face](https://huggingface.co/tic-oss/tic-risk-open-model): the open model
- [The paper (PDF)](https://huggingface.co/tic-oss/tic-risk-open-model/resolve/main/paper.pdf): how the model is built and tested
- [Home page](https://risk.tic.io/): the model, the four sample companies and the sources it reads