Bankruptcy within a year
The company goes bankrupt within the next 12 months.
An AI model that determines risk
Finds 3 out of 4 bankruptcies a year ahead of time.
The TIC Risk Open Model is an open-source AI model with 232 million parameters, trained and tested on the public records of 1.5 million Swedish limited companies. The same principle can be applied in other countries. It's trained on events occurring in a company and estimates the chance that something goes wrong in the coming year. We have made a sample of four Swedish companies, with figures for October 2026.
The model is not trained on any personal data. It only contains limited companies and their data.
- Step 1
Public records
What Swedish authorities have recorded about the company: annual reports, board changes, late fees, unpaid debts.
- Step 2
Learning
It has learned from the records of 1.5 million Swedish companies which patterns put a company at risk.
- Step 3
A chance for the year ahead
For each question it gives a chance, such as 2 %: of 100 companies with that chance, about 2 are affected.
Companies
Based on real Swedish limited companies, with their details slightly changed.
Company A
1
Wholesale trade · started 2021
7.4 %chance of bankruptcy within a year · very high risk
Company B
1
Grocery retail with a broad range · started 2022
20.1 %chance of bankruptcy within a year · very high risk
Company C
2
Retail trade · started 2021
3.9 %chance of bankruptcy within a year · high risk
Company D
1
Construction of residential and non-residential buildings · started 2021
57.2 %chance of bankruptcy within a year · very high risk
Five example questions
The model answers five example questions about each company.
Bankruptcy within two years
The company goes bankrupt within the next 24 months.
New unpaid debt
Within a year, the Swedish Enforcement Authority (Kronofogden) is asked to collect a new unpaid debt from the company, or an old one grows.
F-tax approval revoked
Within a year, the Swedish Tax Agency revokes the company’s F-tax approval, which it needs to invoice as a business, because it broke the rules, for example by not filing or not paying tax.
Annual report late
Within a year, the Swedish Companies Registration Office (Bolagsverket) charges the company a fee for filing its annual report late.
How to read the numbers
A chance
A chance of 2 % means that of 100 companies with that chance, about 2 go bankrupt within a year and 98 do not.
2 in 100
Risk classes
To make companies easy to compare, the chance of bankruptcy within a year also gets a risk class from 1 to 5.
- 1Very high risk5 % or more
- 2High risk2 to 5 %
- 3Medium risk0.8 to 2 %
- 4Low risk0.3 to 0.8 %
- 5Very low riskunder 0.3 %
Sources of events
The model uses 69 million records of 54 kinds from 1.5 million companies.
Companies Registration OfficeBolagsverket
- Registrations, name and purpose changes
- Board and officer changes, beneficial owners (only changes, not details)
- Annual reports and their key figures, auditor findings
- Registry cases, dividends, late-filing fees
- Board gaps, liquidation, reconstruction, bankruptcy, striking-off
Tax AgencySkatteverket
- Tax registrations: F-tax, VAT, employer
- Employer declarations and corrections
- Late fees, tax surcharges, payment deferrals
Enforcement AuthorityKronofogden
- Debts sent for collection
- Enforcement cases
- Payment orders
- Reports that no assets were found
Statistics SwedenSCB
- The industry code
- National economic statistics
Public Health AgencyFolkhälsomyndigheten
- Alcohol serving permits
Also
- An industry estimated from the company’s own description, when it has no registered code
- Companies it is linked to: owners through other companies, and its audit firm
No personal data: the model sees that a board seat changed, but nothing about the person.